The AI Displacement Theory
The D2L survey shows a sense of optimism amongst HR leaders for entry level hiring.
The Findings
64% project that their entry-level hiring will actually increase over the next 24 months.
Only a minority of HR leaders (12%) surveyed anticipate a decrease in entry-level hiring. Among this group however, 56% cite the
“redistribution or automation of tasks via AI tools” as a primary reason for reducing headcount.
What are the main drivers for reducing your entry-level headcount? You may select up to two responses.
Among HR leaders who indicate their hiring volume for entry-level roles will decrease
Redistribution or automation of tasks via AI tools
0%
Budget constraints / Economic headwinds
0%
Internal restructuring
0%
Not finding candidates with the right skills
0%
Offshoring / Outsourcing
0%
Other, please specify
0%
% selected
Redefining Entry-Level Work
The current state of entry-level work is less about a decrease of jobs and more about a shift in expectations:
With nearly half of HR leaders stating an increase in productivity of employees due to GenAI, the immediate danger isn’t disappearance of entry-level work, but the compression of the learning curve of entry-level work, leaving less room for the trial-and-error and cognitive struggle learning methods.
By automating the “drudge work”—e.g., research, basic data analysis, and first-draft synthesis—organizations are inadvertently removing the essentials of professional growth and development of subject matter expertise.
Seniority Shift
The Takeaway
At risk from these shifts is the creation of a “missing rung” on the career ladder. Many organizations are effectively betting that a single mid-level manager plus GenAI is more valuable than a manager supported by entry-level associates. While this drives immediate efficiency, it bypasses the traditional talent pipeline model entirely.
If companies are skipping the entry-level tier by condensing their entry-level leaning on AI-powered senior employees, we are not just seeing a shift in hiring—we are seeing a deliberate bypass of the talent pipeline’s foundation.
Risk to the Talent Pipeline
The undermining of entry-level work risks creating a talent pipeline paradox.
58%
Of HR leaders who expect their entry-level hiring will decrease due to AI, 58% recognize that this will create a shortage of qualified senior leaders within just five years.
48%
Nearly half (48%) of all survey respondents envision a future workforce that is more of a “diamond” shape with a large mid-level workforce but relatively fewer entry-level and senior positions if current trends persist
This suggests that we are optimizing for short-term productivity at the expense of long-term institutional leadership capacity, including limited depth of foundational knowledge.
While 77% of HR leaders express confidence in their current ability to develop future strategic leaders, this confidence appears to be built on a crumbling foundation as nearly 3/4ths of respondents (74%) admit they do not have active upskilling or employee development programs in place to replace the vital on-the-job learning and informal knowledge transfer currently being lost to
AI automation
While most HR leaders have replacements for on-the-job training and learning that is being lost to AI,
the plurality say it is currently in planning.
Do you currently have a formal mechanism to replace the “on-the-job training and learning” typically gained in entry-level roles that is being lost to automation via AI?
Yes
In planning
No
Don't Know
This “preparation gap” suggests that many leaders are relying on legacy development models that are no longer compatible with an AI-augmented workflow.